1.It's not time to remove the mask
Now is not the time to remove the mask. The situation at home and abroad is now very different. China has entered the second stage of the epidemic due to very decisive measures, while some other major countries are still in the first stage of the outbreak and are still climbing upwards. This means that the probability of person-to-person transmission is very high, and the number of confirmed cases is increasing very quickly. Wearing a mask is still a very important means of self-protection, and it is too early to propose not to wear it. However, in areas where the epidemic is not serious, places with few people or empty places are not necessarily worn.
2.Wuhan has passed the level, but there is still the next level
When the epidemic broke out, the central government took decisive action to control and control the urban traffic in Wuhan. It was very successful to adopt mass prevention and control measures elsewhere. In the history of epidemic prevention and control, this is also a feat.
There are still two tests ahead. One is how to control and resume work at the same time, and the other is the "external defense input" off. At present, foreign countries are still at the peak of outbreaks. Some large coastal cities in China, which have close exchanges with foreign countries, are easily involved and some outbreaks occur. They also need to pass various prevention and control measures.
3.The possibility of overseas outbreaks causing a second outbreak in China is small
Will overseas imported cases continue to appear, will it cause community transmission and trigger a second outbreak in China?
This is actually two problems, one is whether the imported cases have spread, and the other is whether there will be an outbreak during the spread. The risk of transmission of imported cases abroad must exist, especially in cases where the nucleic acid test is positive or the symptoms of infection have occurred, the infection is relatively strong and will cause the virus to spread.
Will it cause an outbreak? It is estimated that the possibility is relatively small. Group prevention and control in our country has been sinking into the community, and community residents have a strong sense of self-protection, such as wearing masks and keeping in touch with people. Once someone has symptoms such as fever, they can quickly report or receive a diagnosis, and isolation. Overall, there is definitely a danger of community transmission, but the second wave of outbreaks in China is very unlikely.
4.It is too early to talk about the turning point of the global epidemic
From a global perspective, the epicenter of the original epidemic was in Europe, especially Spain and Italy, and now includes Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The biggest problem is the United States, which has been increasing at a rate of 10,000 or 20,000 cases per day in the most recent week. Therefore, it is still early to see the turning point.
At the inflection point, it depends on whether the government can intervene forcefully. There are many unpredictable factors in other countries, so it is much harder for me to predict the global inflection point than it is to predict China. As this situation continues to develop, I am afraid it will take another two weeks.
5.The proportion of asymptomatic infections in China will not be very large
Asymptomatic infections do not occur out of thin air, and usually appear in two groups: one is in areas where the epidemic is relatively serious, but people who have not yet shown symptoms but may have been infected. The other is close contacts of confirmed cases. Their proportion is still relatively small.
There are also two concepts for asymptomatic infections. One is that there is no symptoms at first, but then it will gradually develop to be symptomatic. This type is definitely infectious. The other type is what we discovered recently. During quite a long period of observation, there is no symptom, but the nucleic acid test is positive. We are studying this type of infectiousness. However, according to the characteristics of the new coronavirus, once the symptoms appear, the infectivity is relatively strong, so it is right to isolate them and observe them as a group of people.
6.Most patients in Fuyang are not infected
The so-called "Fuyang" is mostly a fragment of nucleic acid rather than the virus itself. Two conditions need to be noted. The first is whether the patient himself relapses. If the patient produces a strong antibody, it will generally not be infected again. As for whether the patients of Fuyang will be transmitted to others, specific analysis is needed. Generally, nucleic acid fragments are not contagious. Some scholars have cultured pharyngeal swabs and secretions of patients in Fuyang, but no virus has been cultured. A
There is also a rare case where the patient has many basic diseases originally, but the symptoms have improved and they have not fully recovered. These patients cannot be ruled out as infectious.
Overall, I do n’t worry too much about patients with reinfection.
7.There is insufficient evidence for the flu of new coronary pneumonia
Will New Coronary Pneumonia last as long as the flu?
This is a school of thought. As of now, there is insufficient evidence. Unless the virus spreads such a pattern: its infectivity is still strong, but the case fatality rate is getting lower and lower, in this case, there is a possibility of long-term existence. We now need to make a long-term observation and grasp sufficient data and cases before we can draw a view like this. In the current situation, I don't think this prediction will be realistic.
8.Inter-animal communication is now too early to draw conclusions
It remains to be seen whether some animals, such as dogs, cats and tigers, have tested positive for nucleic acids, whether they are caused by pollution or infected. Some animals already carry some viruses, which may not be symptomatic and may not be contagious. It is now believed that the new coronavirus in these animals can infect both humans and animals, and can cause disease. The conclusion is too early, and I generally do n’t look at it that way.
9.There are no special medicines, but some effective medicines are found
Some of the drugs we are currently experimenting with, such as chloroquine, the results of the experiment are definitely valid, we are summarizing and may be published soon. There are also some traditional Chinese medicines, such as Lianhua Qingwen. Not only did we perform in vitro experiments, but we also found in P3 laboratory (that is, the third-level laboratory of biosafety protection, editor's note) that its antiviral effect is not strong, but it is anti-inflammatory The performance is outstanding, and the relevant experimental results will be published soon. In addition, there is the Chinese medicine Xuebijing. Its main components include safflower, salvia, red peony, etc., which are used for promoting blood circulation and removing blood stasis. It is also effective for the treatment of severe patients.
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10.the vaccine will not be listed soon
Vaccines are really important to really end the epidemic. Now countries are developing at the fastest rate. But I don't think the vaccine can be made in three or four months. In addition, according to the experience of fighting against SARS, removing the intermediate host can also stop the spread of the epidemic. At present, we do not yet know what the spread chain of the new coronavirus is, and it is also important to cut it off after figuring it out.
Putting all hope on the vaccine, regardless of other methods, is negative. Moreover, after the vaccine comes out, it is impossible to be perfect at a time. The susceptible people can be vaccinated, but it is not necessary for everyone to be vaccinated.
11.Mass immunization is the most negative approach
The most negative way to deal with the epidemic is the so-called mass immunization. This was the idea more than a hundred years ago. At that time, humans had no choice but to let the virus infect. People who survived the infection naturally obtained antibodies. I do not agree with this method to deal with the new coronavirus now. Over the past 100 years, mankind has made great progress, there are many ways to prevent it, no need to use natural immunization, group immunization.
12.The most worthwhile experience shared by China in the fight against epidemic disease is its execution
China's war epidemic has mainly taken two major measures: one is to block outbreak areas and block the spread; the second is grassroots group prevention and control, that is, joint prevention and control. Now there are two cores of prevention and control, the first is to maintain distance, and the second is to wear a mask.
Therefore, the most shareable experience is execution. The medical level and technical strength of many countries are much higher than those of China. The reason why they were caught off guard by the epidemic was because they did not have the ideological preparation and did not take decisive measures to cause many front-line medical staff to become infected. It is easy to get out of control.
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